One of the most powerful concepts in macroeconomics is the concept of the Black Swan.
It is a term first coined by Nassim Taleb to describe an improbable event that causes catastrophic results.
Why a Black Swan?
Well, for the longest time, Europeans couldn’t fathom the idea that Black Swans existed… they only knew of White Swans.
COVID is an example of a Black Swan. Who predicted that shitshow?
The GFC was another… it completely restarted the whole economy and eradicated the wealth of the middle class.
These events can completely destroy businesses too.
They get all the news features and all the media attention as they lay wake to the business landscape.
But in reality, these Black Swan events pose far less risk to a business than Grey Rhinos.
Grey Rhinos, unlike Black Swans, are obvious dangers that stare you down in the face. These types of threats scuff the ground with their hooves as they point their horn at you.
As they prepare to charge, you stand there, frozen in fright, as an impending and obvious threat hurtles toward you..
Grey Rhinos are a problem you can see from a mile away…
And unlike the Black Swan, they are completely avoidable.
But, instead of acting swiftly and decisively, you freeze, putting you, and your business in danger.
These are the types of threats that I mostly deal with when working with my mentees.
These stampeding Rhinos might show up as hugely inefficient employees that you won’t move on despite burning through the culture of your organisation and pulling down the average…
Or a glaring deficiency in a sales process that is slashing your conversion percentage and leaving opportunity at the door…
Or an absence of a real marketing strategy that leaves you relying on hope.
Regardless of the threat, it’s something obvious that you’re choosing to ignore.
So how do you avoid a stampeding rhino?
Never get yourself in a position of danger in the first place.
This is why I recommend mentors for everyone who owns a business..
A great mentor can help you spot obvious threats before it unravels all your hard work.
And if the mentor is worth their salt, they might even turn a threat into an opportunity, which is the topic of next month’s Alley-Oop newsletter.
I’ll be walking through some strategies to avoid getting your business in sticky situations that have the potential to undo all the progress you’ve made… before it wreaks havoc… AND, turning it into opportunity so you can capitalise on every curveball that is thrown your way.
Want to make better decisions (that could save you thousands) for less than the price of a coffee a day?
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– Karl Goodman
