I have a prediction for 2024.
And it’s a complete backflip from what I would have said just a few years ago if you’d asked me the following question:
“What should you optimise your marketing for?”
Back then, and in line with the Gary V approach that made him famous, I would have declared:
Whoever can maintain the markets attention, makes the moolah.
But in just three short years, the game has completely changed.
Attention is a bloodbath.
It has been massacred and it’s near impossible to capture it.
Don’t believe me?
Try out this short experiment.
Can you recall five ads that you watched/saw yesterday?
List them out in your head.
Me too… I wouldn’t have the first clue of a single ad I saw.
The reason for this is a result of three forces, that have all been amplified in the last three years:
1. Market scepticism
3. Our brains and habits.
While I could write an email on each of these forces themselves, safe to say the following:
Since COVID, there is a massive amount of scepticism toward the 3-letter acronyms and institutions that were once held in high regard – FDA, WHO, CDC, WEF, TGA etc.
You don’t have to wear a tinfoil hat anymore to know these guys aren’t as virtuous as they claim to be which has a trickle down effect into the free markets – which includes us.
Secondly, maintaining consumer privacy has been put into the spotlight since iOS 14. Facebook can’t leverage your data in the way it used to since Apple c*ckblocked them — and for good reason… the retargeting was getting a bit insane when brands could literally follow you around the internet like a stalker.
And then there is our own habits.
We now doom scroll into the wee hours of the morning…
Many of us spend 4+ hours a day on our phone, without being able to recall what the hell we were doing…
And the ability to keep focus is being eroded faster than public trust in Government.
Which brings me to the point of this email.
The attention economy is dead.
A new force is taking it’s place.
My prediction for the coming decade is this:
Those with the best product, and the most goodwill, will win.
Those that give, far more than they take, will win.
Those who will win won’t try and convert prospects into buyers.
But will convert prospects into believers.
The winners will be missionaries of a big vision who put the product first, while the losers will be mercenaries who bludgeon the market for anything they can take, putting conversion first.
Missionaries will have the best product.
Mercenaries will jump from product to product, obsessed with the next ‘thing to sell.’
Missionaries will have customers for years, with huge LTVs. They will be surrounded by disciples who spread the word, and even more followers, who are ready and eager to listen.
Mercenaries will constantly be chasing acquisition because their business is built on churn.
Missionaries will focus on retention > referral > content > paid acquisition in that order, while mercenaries will do the reverse.
Missionaries will make sure they build a product so good, they have long-term retention.
A product so good, people can’t help but talk about it.
A product so good, that the content practically creates itself (through UGC etc).
A product so good, that paid acquisition is a tiny element of what they do.
Mercenaries on the other hand, will rely on paid acquisition and mindless content that takes a lot of time to get them nowhere at all.
They will be scraping the bottom of the barrel for a referral because their products do what they say on the package, but nothing more.
And, they’ll constantly be looking for new customers, as the existing ones leave through the revolving door they entered a short-time before.
I’m so certain of this, that I’m betting our whole business strategy around it.
And on that note, there is something I promised Nathan, the head of Education, that I’d do for him.
This was to remind you that if you ever refer someone to our Cert III/IV in Fitness to get qualified as a PT, to flick us an email and let us know.
If they end up choosing us, then we’ll make sure you get $500 for putting your faith in us to qualify someone you care about.
And since you’re likely to have done it anyway (quality courses to get qualified are few and far between these days), it makes sure that we never take for granted, the goodwill you have with us.
If you want to find out more about our Cert IV which kicks off in a couple of weeks, you can do that here:
Otherwise, here’s to the goodwill economy… it’s going to be fun.
– Karl Goodman